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Economic Report: Home prices soar at one of the fastest rates on record, but higher mortgage rates should slow future growth

The numbers: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city price index posted a 19.1% year-over-year gain in January, up slightly from 18.6% the previous month. On a monthly basis, the index increased 1.8% between December and January.

Meanwhile, the Case-Shiller national home price index demonstrated 19.2% growth between January 2021 and January 2022.

“Last fall we observed that home prices, although continuing to rise quite sharply, had begun to decelerate. Even that modest deceleration was on pause in January,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said in the Case-Shiller report.

What happened: Phoenix recorded the highest rate of home-price growth in the country in January, according to the Case-Shiller report, with a 32.6% year-over-year increase. As with the month prior, two Florida cities closely followed: Tampa with a 30.8% gain and Miami with a 28.1% increase.

All 20 cities that are tracked by the Case-Shiller index record price growth on an annual basis, and in 16 of the 20 cities the rate of home-price appreciation was higher in January than in December.

Looking ahead: “While the small number of homes-for-sale will keep upward pressure on prices as we move through the Spring buying season, I expect conditions to undergo noticeable adjustments in the months ahead,” said George Ratiu, manager of economic research at Realtor.com.

“Looking forward, the home buying environment will likely remain very competitive, with home price growth also remaining concerningly high as inventories show little-to-no sign of respite and buyers attempt to lock in a lower rate in anticipation of further increases,” said CoreLogic deputy chief economist Selma Hepp.

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