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The news coming from this giant volcano is even gloomier than the new forecasts from the IMF and World Bank

Investors love looking at esoteric indicators for clues on how the economy is performing, and therefore how stocks, bonds and other assets will trade.

How about looking at carbon dioxide emissions? There may be a political agreement to reduce emissions but that’s an effort phased in over many years. Any sudden changes are more likely to be the impact of changing patterns of economic activity rather than cleaner output.

So we take you to Mauna Loa, home to the world’s second largest volcano and also the site of a remote observatory from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, set up in 1957.

Over to the blog Political Calculations, which tracks the 12-month average of the year-over-year change in parts per million of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

“In just a month, the global economy has gone from showing signs of stalling growth to providing strong evidence the Earth’s economy has resumed shrinking,” says the blog.

It gives two reasons — the sanctions imposed on Russia, which are disrupting flows of energy to Europe; and China’s use of lockdowns to combat the spread of COVID-19.

The news from the volcano dovetails with more official takes on economics from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, as both institutions reduced estimates of global growth, though neither forecast a recession. Several Wall Street banks have reduced their growth forecasts for China due to the strict lockdowns, while Fannie Mae, the U.S. housing giant, forecasts the U.S. economy will enter recession next year due to expectations of a series of Federal Reserve rate increases.

The buzz

Netflix
NFLX,
-35.73%

shares were again pounded after the latest earnings report, diving 27% in premarket trade after losing 200,000 subscribers in the first quarter and forecasting a two million drop in the second quarter. The Netflix news also pressured streaming hardware maker Roku
ROKU,
-4.07%
,
as well as rival streamers Paramount Global
PARA,
-6.99%

and Walt Disney
DIS,
-4.40%
.

In a since-deleted tweet, fund manager Michael Burry said the competition is coming for Netflix just as it’s coming for Tesla. Tesla
TSLA,
-4.16%

CEO Elon Musk tweeted the “woke mind virus is making Netflix unwatchable.”

Speaking of Musk, a cryptic message from him suggested he might launch a tender offer for Twitter. Tesla
TSLA,
-4.16%

reports results after the close of trade.

Cloud service and consulting provider IBM
IBM,
+7.69%

beat earnings estimates and said it would hit the high end of its revenue growth forecast this year. Microchip equipment maker ASML
ASML,
+2.95%

guided for sales growth in the second quarter below analyst estimates, with gross margin only slightly above first-quarter levels.

French President Emmanuel Macron faces far-right challenger Marine Le Pen in a televised debate Wednesday, after recent polls showed a widening of his lead.

The U.S. economics calendar features existing home sales data, speeches from three Federal Reserve presidents and the release of the Beige Book of economic anecdotes.

The markets

U.S. stock futures
ES00,
+0.42%

NQ00,
-0.82%

were steady after Tuesday’s surge.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD10Y,
2.845%

slipped to 2.87%.

Top tickers

Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern.

Ticker

Security name

NFLX,
-35.73%

Netflix

GME,
-1.99%

GameStop

TSLA,
-4.16%

Tesla

AMC,
-4.36%

AMC Entertainment

ATER,
-13.59%

Aterian

TWTR,
-1.73%

Twitter

AAPL,
+0.11%

Apple

MULN,
-20.04%

Mullen Automotive

NVDA,
-3.14%

Nvidia

CEI,
+1.52%

Camber Energy

The chart

Bonds have sold off by so much that they are now looking to some like an appealing investment. Yields for many of the core fixed-income markets are close to their highest levels since the beginning of 2010. “Starting yield levels are the best predictor of future returns so with yields increasing meaningfully this year, future returns look more attractive than they have in years,” said Lawrence Gillum, fixed income strategist at LPL Financial.

Random reads

Hong Kong’s famed Star Ferry is on the verge of failure.

NBA legend Jerry West has demanded a retraction from HBO over his portrayal in the drama, “Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty.”

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